The News on Sunday: July 19, 1998

Census 1998: Downsizing the population of Sindh?

With Kalabagh Dam and unjust NFC award still unresolved, can the controversial census results bring Sindh's political forces together?

Shahzeb Jillani suggests this may be highly desirable, but unlikely...

Engineered, manipulated, exaggerated. 'A scientific fraud' and a shameless reflection of 'state fudging national statistics'. These are just some of the ways in which the provisional results of fifth population census have been described in Sindh. The results announced by finance minister Sartaj Aziz on July 9 have again enhanced the sense of deprivation in the province, apparently bringing most marginalized forces of Sindh province together. This has been well represented in the reaction from independent analysts and varied political forces of Sindh on the issue.

From Muttahida Qaumi Movement, Pakistan Peoples Party, Jamaat-i-Islami, and Awami National Party to Sindhi nationalists like Rasool Buksh Palijo, Mumtaz Bhutto, Bashir Qureshi and Dr Qadir Magsi, all have 'rejected' the new figures in their public statements. However, as with the contentious issues of Kalabagh Dam and National Finance Commission (NFC) Award, they have so far failed to go beyond issuing press statements and translate their common reaction into a meaningful alliance or a formal joint strategy. No wonder the Punjab-dominated federal government has repeatedly turned a blind eye to Sindh's rebellious stand on sensitive issues like this.

To begin with, federal government's contention that population of Sindh has increased by only 10.9 million since the 1981 census figure of 19.0 million has caught most analysts by surprise. Equally shocking, has been the under-reported population increase in Sindh's provincial capital and country's industrial centre, the city of Karachi. In 1981, Karachi's population was estimated at 5.2 million. Today, the federal government claims it has risen to 9.2 million.

However, in the last few years, various independent studies projected Karachi's population to be somewhere between 12 million and 14 million. Karachi's biggest representative political party MQM-Altaf claims the city's population to be not less than 14 million. Against the general impression of these estimates, the figure of 9.2 has appeared justifiably unacceptable to everyone. Moreover, computation by Islamabad-based National Institute of Population Studies and estimates of various academic studies project Sindh's population at 36.1 million, as opposed to 1998 census results of 29.9 million.

Perhaps the biggest shortcoming of the governmentfigures appears to beits unwillingness to count the ever increasing inflow of people to the coastal city of Karachi. Whether its illegal immigrants, estimated to be 3 million workers in fisheries, poultry and garment industries or unaccounted migrants from other three provinces, the latest census have clearly ignored this huge section of Sindh's urban population. This is the 'visiting population' of Karachi which has been embraced with the traditional hospitality of this land without any recognition, let alone enhanced resources for it.

Critics claim that the future impact of keeping Sindh's population well below the actual estimates could be disastrous for national unity. Lower population figures for Sindh and Karachi mean that the province will have a lesser share in the distribution of parliamentary seats and allocation of federal funds. Punjab, the most populace province of the country, will continue its domination (some say 'hegemony') over the power and resources which should constitutionally be shared fairly and justly by the four federating units.

Such criticism is rooted in Punjab's traditional reluctance in recognizing Sindh's due share of power and resources which has always been a source of heart burning, deprivation and suspicion. However, what has made the 1998 census results particularly disputable is prime minister Nawaz Sharif's one-point agenda of strengthening his home province at the cost of alienating rest of the three provinces during his 18 month rule.

Nevertheless, chances are that mere lip service against the controversial census figures will not force the government to re-consider the exercise, let alone re-conduct it with the required level of objectivity. At the most, government may seek to pacify MQM-Altaf's reservations by involving the party in conducting random checks of the stated figures.

For its part, opposition PPP has not recovered from its defensive and defeatist posture in the national politics. Lack of coordination on the part of Sindh's political forces who actually stand to gain much by cooperating with each other on the real issues instead of fighting over non-issues, looks desirable, but least likely in the absence of a rational political culture.

More importantly, growing public apathy in responding to such sensitive matters in a mobilised manner is unforeseen as pressing economic hardships take precedence over struggle for political goals. As one senior PPP leader put it when asked how far could the opposition go on the issue of census results, Kalabagh Dam and NFC award, he said: "The worsening economic conditions of the country make it difficult for opposition parties to launch popular street struggle against government's unjust political decisions."

However, economic hardships have not always deterred people from political action. More than that, it is the lack of faith in leaders and disillusionment with parties which seems to have forced people into inaction and apathy.