Editorial Comments: The Nation, Lahore
July 10, 1998
The preliminary results of the long-delayed 1998 census provide one major surprise. The population growth rate is apparently significantly lower than was thought. If the census had been held on time in 1991, this hopeful trend would have been identified much earlier, and present over-estimations, ranging from the government's 9 million to the 20 million excess predicted by independent sources, would have been corrected. If indeed there has been no under-enumeration, then it seems that the worst case population growth scenarios can be laid to rest. At the same time, there is no room for complacency. Though the rural share of population has fallen from 71.7 per cent to 67.5 per cent, it should be noted that in absolute terms, the rural population (88.1 million) is now greater than the total population (84.3 million) 17 years ago. While the growth rate may have come down to 2.1 to 2.4 per cent currently, it is still a horrendous figure. It is not very satisfying to know that Pakistan, in 1981 the world's ninth most populous country, is now seventh. One prediction has come true: continued urbanisation. The urban population has gone up from 28.3 per cent to 32.5 per cent, which means an urban growth rate of 3.45 per cent against a rural rate of 2.24 per cent. That implies a net shift of about 5.5 million people in the last 17 years. Interestingly, the trend of urbanisation has changed, for the fastest-growing cities are not Lahore and Karachi, but Islamabad, Bahawalpur, Quetta, Sheikhupura, Rahimyar Khan and Gujranwala. Karachi's growth of 3.45 per cent, equal to the national figure, places it at eighth position, while Lahore's 3.22 per cent makes it 11th. Karachi has presumably suffered from its chronic violence, while Lahore has seemingly spilled over to Gujranwala and Sheikhupura. The spread of urbanisation can be seen from the fact that of the eight cities in 1981 with populations of over 500,000, seven have crossed a million, the eighth, Peshawar, falling a mere 16,000 short. The relative size of smaller cities has also changed. Sahiwal and Okara today are the size of Islamabad in 1981, while Jhang is now larger than Quetta in 1981.
However, the census results are certain to be challenged politically. This was the most politicised and closely observed census in our history, but fears of radical realignments among the provinces did not occur. Sindh and NWFP have increased their population shares slightly, at the expense of Punjab, Balochistan and FATA. Punjab and Balochistan stand to lose Federal Divisible Pool money, while Balochistan should also lose a National Assembly seat. There will be a major problem with FATA, which according even to the 1981 census was grossly over-represented in the Assembly, and should lose three seats. This gives Balochistan and FATA an incentive to create a rumpus, elements in Balochistan already having tried to sabotage the census. There will be more problems when the time comes for intra-provincial distribution of national and provincial seats, for Balochistan, NWFP and Sindh all have ethnic minority problems where the balance of power could be disturbed, if not necessarily reversed. However, for want of any major apparent defect, the census results should be honoured.
The Census
Results -- The Frontier Post -- Editorial
Altaf
Hussain Rejects 1998 Census Results
A Nation of 130
million -- The Daily DAWN -- Editorial